Cibus: Growth target and EPS accretion tough to align - Nordea

Cibus will report its Q2 results on 21 July. We expect net operating income (NOI) of EUR 25.6m, up 17% q/q and 38% y/y, owing in particular to the EUR 280m Danish acquisition that closed in April. We forecast income from property management (IFPM) of EUR 16.9m, up 16% q/q and 56% y/y. Cibus is trading at a ~10% premium to Q1 2022 EPRA NRV. We lower our fair value range to SEK 160-220 (220-280), based on a combination of P/EPRA NRV and peer group valuations, driven by a lower valuation for Cibus's compounder peers, higher interest rates and increased credit spreads. We also argue that the compounder case has weakened, as the EPRA NRV premium has shrunk considerably. The fair value range implies a 2023E P/EPRA NRV of 0.85-1.17x and an adjusted 2023E P/E of 11.7-16.0x. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

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