Cibus: Dividend cut a statement of prudence - Nordea

Cibus's Q4 2022 income from property management (IFPM) was below consensus, even when adjusted for EUR -1.6m in one-offs. Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share declined by 9% q/q, down to EUR 1.16. This was mainly caused by an increase in the cost of debt, i.e. 3.9% in Q4 from 3.1% in Q3. Cibus cut its dividend to EUR 0.90 (from EUR 0.99) to reflect the changing interest rate environment. From the new dividend base, Cibus argues that it can pay an annually increasing dividend. The share is trading at a ~25% discount to EPRA NRV, which corresponds to an implied yield of ~6.5%. We cut adjusted EPS by 6-9% for 2023E-25E due to higher interest costs. Our fair value range is SEK 140-180 (160-200) per share, based on a mix of P/EPRA NAV and peer valuation. Cibus needs to refinance its EUR 61.8m bond expiring in Q3 2023, which will further increase interest costs. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

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