Biosergen - Fungicide with potential - Mangold Insight Analys

Mangold Insight initiate coverage of the biotechnology company Biosergen with a buy recommendation and a price target of SEK 2.70 per share. This gives an upside of over 110 percent. The company develops a potent drug against invasive fungal diseases. There is a need for better treatment options against invasive fungal diseases, which have recently received increasing attention in the media and from health organisations, as well as drug companies requiring new candidates. The treatment options that are available have far too many side effects and are developing resistance. 

Biosergen’s drug candidate, BSG005, is undergoing phase 1 studies, and has so far proven to be safe, without toxic effects on the kidneys or liver, 
something that is common with competing fungicides. Creating an effective and safe treatment option will make BSG005 an attractive drug 
candidate to licence for the major drug companies. The ongoing phase 1 study is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2023.  
Top line results are then also expected. The clinical programme is scheduled to end in 2026. 

Mangold has carried out a thorough analysis of competitors, and values the company based on a SOTP model. A risk-adjusted DCF model has been used to obtain a fair value. Based on three different scenarios, the potential for BSG005 appears to be significant. Mangold has chosen the Base case, which gives a fair value of 148 MSEK. The risk in drug development companies is very high, and the company’s value is completely dependent on one product.