Gofore: Sizeable acquisition boosting growth - Evli Research

Acquisition and guidance revision

Gofore announced the acquisition of Qentinel Finland Oy, a specialist in software testing automation with roughly 100 employees and 2019 sales and EBIT of EUR 12.0m and EUR 1.7m respectively. The debt-free purchase price is EUR 8.9m and an additional purchase price has been agreed upon, expected to be EUR 1-2m, with the deal estimated to be closed September 1st. EV/EBIT multiples of ~7.0x on 2019 figures and upper range of the purchase price appear rather attractive given the high profitability, with our peer group on 2020 estimates at a median on 14.6x. Gofore specified its 2020 guidance in conjunction with the acquisition announcement, with sales expected to be in the range of EUR 70-76m (prev. grow from 2019) and adj. EBITA to grow compared with 2019. The sales impact of the acquisition on 2020 figures is estimated at EUR 4m.

Expecting good H1 figures, acquisition boosting growth

Gofore reports H1 results on August 14th. H1 sales have been pre-announced at EUR 37.4m, with the monthly figures in our view having shown little impact of the pandemic. We see slightly weaker adj. EBITA-margins in H1 compared with the solid 17.3% Q1 margins but still expect a commendable 14.7% adj. EBITA-%. We expect full-year sales and adj. EBITA of EUR 75.1m and 9.8m respectively. The acquisition should keep growth in the double-digits in 2021 assuming a continued limited COVID-19 impact.

HOLD with a target price of EUR 8.4 (7.8)

Following revisions to our estimates based on the acquisition and guidance revision we adjust our target price to EUR 8.4 (7.8), valuing Gofore at 16.5x 2020E adj. P/E, with our HOLD-rating intact.

https://pankki.evli.com/hubfs/ERP/Raportit/Gofore/Gofore%20200811%20Company%20update.pdf

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