Xplora Technologies: Record Q3 – all eyes now on Doro - ABG

We lift '24e EBITDA by 27%, '25-'26e up 9-4%
Doro now closer to a done deal, could lift '28e EBITA ~105-175%
Fair value range of NOK 23-42 (20-38)


Q3 EBITA 74% above ABGSC due to 30% device growth

Xplora's Q3 revenue of NOK 257m was 18% above our estimate, driven by record unit sales of 163k, representing growth of 30% y-o-y. This resulted in EBITA of NOK 25m, 74% above our estimate. Compared to previous years, Xplora expects somewhat reduced seasonality and a more balanced distribution of watch sales across Q3 and Q4 this year. But it also stated that it expects Q4 to be “a good quarter”, which we interpret as positive y-o-y growth on revenue and EBITDA. For Q4, we forecast 6% growth y-o-y in devices sold, revenue of NOK 243m (+14% y-o-y) and EBITDA of 18m (+56% y-o-y). Xplora ended Q3 with 100 FTEs, down from 108 in Q2, which reduces our '25-'26e opex by ~2%. We lift '25-'26e EBITDA by 9-4%, of which the majority is due to lower opex. We have not extrapolated the strong growth in device sales in Q3, but with a higher base, our '25/'26e revenue expectations are now significantly de-risked.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2024/11/xplora-technologies---record-q3--all-eyes-now-on-doro/