Xplora Technologies: Becoming a broader IoT company - ABG

We forecast Q4 revenue of NOK 243m, +15% y-o-y
Doro acquisition closed, could lift '28e EBITA by ~120-200%
Xplora standalone at 13-8x EV/EBITA on '25-'26e


Q4e: 8% below consensus on revenue, 4% below on EBITDA

Xplora delivered strong revenue growth of 35% y-o-y in Q3, driven by record device sales of 163k units (+30% y-o-y). The company has pre-announced 358k total subscriptions at the end of Q4, up 39% y-o-y. Xplora expects somewhat reduced seasonality and a more balanced distribution of watch sales across Q3 and Q4 this year, but it also stated that it expects Q4 to be “a good quarter”, which we interpret as positive y-o-y growth on revenue and EBITDA. For Q4, we forecast 6% growth y-o-y in devices sales, revenue of NOK 243m (+15% y-o-y), and EBITDA of NOK 18.4m (+58% y-o-y). As a result, we are 8% below FactSet consensus revenue of NOK 266m and 4% below consensus EBITDA of NOK 19.1m. We only make minor estimate changes in this report.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/xplora_technologies/Equity-research/2025/1/xplora-technologies---becoming-a-broader-iot-company/