Vestum: Stronger margins behind adj. EBITA beat - ABG

- Sales -6%, adj. EBITA +5% vs cons in Q3
- Strong performance in product companies behind solid margins
- More optimistic about 2025 growth, adj. EBITA est's likely up 1-2%

Q3 details
Another strong quarter for Water and better margins in Infra, while Services remain weaker. Sales SEK 1,275m (-11% vs ABGSC, -6% vs cons), -23% y-o-y whereof -11% organic (vs ABGSC -6%). Adj. EBITA SEK 147m (+7% vs ABGSC, +5% vs cons), -9% y-o-y, margin 11.5% (ABGSC 9.6%, cons 10.4%). Higher sales and EBITA in Water (20% org growth) and better margins in Infra offset by continued weakness in Services. Stronger contribution from product companies supported the higher profitability (in combination with divestments). FCF was decent (SEK 87m, 59% conversion) but leverage remains at 2.8x ND/EBITDA due to PDAS acquisition.

Preliminary estimate changes
We expect consensus to upgrade '25e-'26e slightly (1-2%) on better performance for the product companies.

Final thoughts
We find it positive that product companies delivered strong performance in Q3, compared to weaker performance in Q2, which we think will relieve some fear. It was also encouraging to see continued good performance for Water. The share has been fairly stable since the Q2 report, and we do not expect any material changes to estimates.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/vestum/Equity-research/2024/10/vestum---stronger-margins-behind-adj.-ebita-beat/