Tallinna Sadam: Turning of the tide ahead - Nordea

Last year was a fairly weak one for Tallinna Sadam, but the tone has changed for 2024. We forecast 2024 net sales and EBIT to grow y/y. Annual growth for the number of passengers, cargo tonnes and vessel calls could remain close to or slightly above medium-term Estonian GDP growth. However, we argue that the equity story is more aligned with growth initiatives stemming from property development, a wind power-support vessel and the Paldiski harbour expansion. Still, the share price appears to reflect short-term weakness rather than long-term growth potential. The stock is trading at a 2024E P/BV of 0.7x, compared with its historical average of 1.2x (2018-23) and the peer group average of 1.3x. Our estimated fair value range remains at EUR 1.4-1.7, based on the combination of a DCF model and a peer group comparison. Marketing material commissioned by Tallinna Sadam.

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