Svedbergs Group: Price hikes in UK, capacity increase in NL - ABG

- Q3 miss driven by Thebalux seasonality
- EBITA growth of 21% y-o-y
- Share trading at 8x '25e EV/EBITA

Q3 takeaways: Thebalux q-o-q is negative in Q3
Venders Group continues to defend its position in a soft market, reporting Q3 organic growth of -1%. Issues for Svedbergs brand continue, with a 19% y-o-y organic decline, offset by strong performances in Roper Rhodes and Macro Design. Compared to our organic growth forecast of +0.7%, Q3 was in line. Gross margins were 130bp stronger y-o-y, at 46%, and the absolute opex level was in line with our estimates. The difference between our forecasts and reported figures was therefore Thebalux's top line, which shrank by 12% q-o-q driven by low volumes in the vacation period and an unplanned production stop. EBITA of SEK 71m was 21% higher y-o-y, for a 20bp margin expansion. The strong performance for Roper Rhodes means Svedbergs Group now expects to pay the maximum earn-out of SEK 168m in Q1'25.

We lower '24-'26e EBITA by 2-0%
The softer top line than we had expected across brands means we lower our sales for '24-'26e by 2-1%, raising growthin '25e slightly, as Svedbergs is investing in capacity to fulfil strong Thebalux demand. We make positive gross margin revisions, 60-80bp for '24-'26e, driven by another round of Roper Rhodes price adjustments in July 2024, leaving our opex estimates in absolute terms about unchanged. The lower top line lowers EBITA by 2-1% for '24-'25e, but we leave '26e EBITA about unchanged. We forecast a 10% EBITA CAGR '24-'26.

8x '25e EV/EBITA compared to historical 7x-11x NTM
The share is trading at 9x-8x '24-'25e EV/EBITA. After making only small negative EBITA revisions (down 2-1% for '24-'25e), we leave our fair value range of SEK 39-55 unchanged, weighing rollover effects and estimate revisions equally, corresponding to 7.4x-10x '25e EV/EBITA vs. a 10y one-standard deviation span of 7-11x NTM EV/EBITA.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2024/10/svedbergs-group---price-hikes-in-uk-capacity-increase-in-nl/