Svedbergs Group: House transactions return to growth - ABG

Q1 report due 29 April
We forecast net sales of SEK 589m, EBITA of SEK 92m
We lower '25e-'27e EBITA by 5-6% on FX, FVR to SEK 43-58 (45-60)


End-markets keep improving

Several market indicators are looking gradually better for Svedbergs Group. In Sweden, house (and apartment) transactions have returned to growth since Q3'24, which offsets some of the Svedbergs brand's struggle with still-lower (-12% y-o-y in Q4) housing starts y-o-y. In the UK, the Group's biggest end-market, house transactions are growing swiftly as well (+20% in Q4, +15% in Q1e). CPA forecasts suggest gradual market recovery picking up, especially in H2'25. Oxford Economics' estimates suggest house transactions in the Netherlands grew ~13% y-o-y in 2024, a positive signal for Thebalux, the newest addition to the Group.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2025/4/svedbergs-group---house-transactions-return-to-growth/