StrongPoint: Soft start, targets optimistic - ABG

Q1 likely flat, limited uptick in Q2e
Targets challenging - likely to land below
Recovery postponed amid contract delays


Q1 likely flat, limited uptick in Q2e

We anticipate a relatively soft Q1, driven by a cautious market where long decision-making cycles and ongoing project delays continue to hamper momentum. Although some markets (e.g Sweden) have shown positive signals in terms of rate cuts, the overall macroeconomic environment remains cloudy (geopolitical trade tensions). We note, however, that although StrongPoint has limited exposure to regions outside of Europe, ongoing trade wars could escalate costs for retailers, which in turn could lower the appetite for new investments. We expect StrongPoint to report Q1 revenues of ~NOK 360m (flat y-o-y), with a GM at 41.5%, EBITDA of ~NOK 4m, EBIT of NOK -6m and net profit of NOK -7m. Regarding Q2e, contracts are developing slowly (e.g. Mercadona and Sainsbury's) and new customer investments are limited, which points to largely flat EBITDA q-o-q. StrongPoint had disposable funds of NOK 102m in Q4, which should be sufficient to handle short-term headwinds, although it could be more challenging medium-term.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2025/4/strongpoint---soft-start-targets-optimistic/