StrongPoint Q4 preview: potential turning point - ABG

Q4e: EBITDA of NOK 17.9m
Margins set to rise in '23e on lower e-com investments
'23e adj. P/E ~15x, DCF points to NOK 34-93/share


Q4e: we expect EBITDA of NOK 17.9m

We make minor estimate changes ahead of StrongPoint’s Q4 report and Strategy Update Session on 13 February. Our Q4 expectations are revenues of NOK 369m (+30% y-o-y, 14% organically excl. ALS), EBITDA of NOK 17.9m and EPS of NOK 0.13. This implies an EBITDA margin of 4.8%, down 2.2pp y-o-y driven by a lower GM (-6.4pp y-o-y on higher share of ESLs and dilution from the ALS acquisition). On the back of weak macro and uncertainty, we think retailers in general will be cautious on capex decisions into 2023. At the same time, we argue that grocery retailers, which are ~85% of StrongPoint’s customer base, are in a much better position. Thus, we have not made material changes to our ‘23 assumptions. Also, the longer-term case for automation in grocery retail is still strong.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/StrongPoint/Equity-research/2023/2/strongpoint---q4-preview-potential-turning-point/