Skolon Q1e: ARPPU-driven growth - ABG

Q1'25e organic sales growth of 47% y-o-y
Minor estimate changes
FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated


What to expect in Q1'25e

We expect organic growth of 47%, with sales of SEK 35m in the first quarter. We expect a solid quarter in terms of growth, primarily driven by increased ARPPU and recent volume growth. Q1 is seasonally the smallest quarter, as few schools purchase new licences and tools after the start of the academic spring term. This means that sales are primarily driven by recurring licence revenue, resulting in a strong gross margin. We expect a GM of 38% and an EBITDA of SEK -1m. Although we expect a strong gross margin, the fixed nature of opex results in a negative EBITDA margin for the quarter, but we note that EBITDA continues to improve on a y-o-y basis (adj. EBITDA margin of -4% in Q1'25e vs. -8% in Q1'24).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/company-name/Equity-research/2025/4/skolon---q1e-arppu-driven-growth/