SinterCast: FX boosts Q1e margin, but hurts '25e-'27e - ABG

Q1e sales -10% y-o-y as programme shutdown headwind remains
FX hedge revaluations to drive strong 43% (23%) adj. EBIT margin
But strong SEK rally also drives 9-11% '25e-'27e adj. EBIT cuts


Q1 expectations

For Q1, we expect sales to be down 10% y-o-y, as EE production continues to suffer from the previously discussed production programme shutdown in H2, and a weaker automotive market. Comps will start easing in Q3, at which point we expect growth from the ramping FAW and MAN programmes to overtake this headwind. Due to the strong rally in the SEK at the end of the quarter, we expect hedge revaluations to impact the adj. EBIT margin positively by 10pp, leading us to forecast a strong margin of 43% (23%).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/sintercast/Equity-research/2025/4/sintercast---fx-boosts-q1e-margin-but-hurts-25e-27e/