Rottneros: Pulp market better, but higher costs weigh - ABG

Q4e: Clean EBIT of SEK -20m
Pulp prices up and demand better
Fair value range: SEK 9-16/sh


Pulp better, but costs up

We expect Q4 clean EBIT of SEK -20m, down from SEK 49m in Q3'23 and SEK 61m in Q4'22. The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK +30m from higher pulp prices (2% NBSK and 12% BHKP), SEK -15m from FX, SEK -2m from pulp price hedges, SEK -5m from increased wood costs (higher prices in Sweden but less Baltic sourcing), SEK -5m from higher chemical and distribution costs (caustic soda price up ~8% q-o-q in Western Europe), SEK -12m from seasonally higher personnel expenses and SEK -60m in planned maintenance. We arrive at Q4 clean EBIT of ~SEK -20m. Q1 will be stronger than Q4, driven by less maintenance costs and higher pulp prices. We expect Q1 clean EBIT of SEK 30-45m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/rottneros/Equity-research/2024/1/rottneros---pulp-market-better-but-higher-costs-weigh/