Relesys: In for a strong end to the year - ABG

Q4e: 36% y-o-y ARR growth, costs higher than in Q3
Focus on '24e: We expect 30% ARR growth and DKK -6.0m EBITDA
Minor '24e-'25e top-line revisions, EBITDA up 10-4%: FVR 3.1-8.4


Q4e: 36% y-o-y ARR growth, costs higher than in Q3

We forecast Q4e ARR of DKK 61.5m (vs. guidance of DKK 59m-64m) for 36.0% y-o-y growth, noting a strong end to '23 in terms of customer wins. We model Q4e revenues of DKK 14.9m, taking the full-year figure to DKK 56.2m (vs. guidance of DKK 54m-60m). Following Q3's low cost level, however, we anticipate somewhat weaker profitability in Q4e, where we forecast adj. EBITDA of DKK -3.8m. With an unchanged 91% Q4e gross margin, higher staff costs should be the key driver of weaker profitability q-o-q, as the impact of more expensive hirings should bring the cost level back to more normalised levels vs. Q3 (a result of Relesys' re-focus on enterprise customers, i.e. larger customers). We also expect some severance costs to weigh on profitability.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/relesys/Equity-research/2024/3/relesys---in-for-a-strong-end-to-the-year/