Relais: We are 13% ahead of consensus on adjusted EBITA for Q1 - Nordea

Ahead of Relais Q1, due on 4 May, we maintain our estimates intact. We note that our estimates do not include the acquisition of Adita in Finland which has been consolidated since the beginning of March. Adita had net sales of EUR 5.6m in 2022, while to our understanding, Adita has been long-term partner for Relais and has been selling Startax products. Hence, positive top line impact on a group level is limited (maybe 1% on annual level). We believe the Q1 has been a fairly stable quarter due to higher share of repair and maintenance sales (33% of sales in 2022) and spare parts sales (30% of sales in 2022). Similar to Q1, we expect Scandinavia to outperform Finland/Baltics. Regarding market dynamics, we note that heavy traffic figures from Finland indicate slower start for the year while light traffic volumes are pointing to higher activity compared to 2021-22 during Q1. Lighting sales (24% of sales in 2022) to consumers have likely continued under pressure, while easing of availability of vehicles could boost equipment sales (13% of sales in 2022) already in Q1 and even more in H2. We model EUR 64.7m sales for Q1, in line with consensus. On adjusted EBITA, we are 13% ahead of consensus with EUR 7.0m for Q1 (EUR 6.2m in Q1 2022). We note challenging Q1 2022 due to high sick leaves and high inflation within fuel and energy prices negatively affecting transport sector. We have DCF- and multiples based fair value of EUR 16.1-19.7 per Relais share. Marketing material commissioned by Relais Group Oyj

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