Relais: Positive momentum has likely continued in Q3 - Nordea

Ahead of Relais Q3 report, we maintain our estimates intact. We expect continued LFL growth support from growth among bigger fleet customers (in Repair & Maintenance) while spare parts sales growth has likely eased after strong H1 where cold winter conditions supported growth. Ahead of the important lighting season, we note slightly improved consumer confidence level in Finland, while intentions to spend on durables remains at a low level. Traffic figures from Finland point to relatively stable y/y mileage. We model Q3 net sales to be up 11% y/y with 4% y/y LFL growth. We are 1% ahead of LSEG Data & Analytics consensus on top line. We forecast EUR 10.1m adjusted EBITA in Q3, up 18% y/y, corresponding to 12.9% adjusted EBITA margin (up 70bp y/y). We believe the focus in the report will be on the development of lighting sales during the peak season (we expect slightly improving LFL growth rate in Q4E against easy comps), integration of acquired companies and M&A pipeline. Relais has long term financial target to reach EUR 50m pro forma adjusted EBITA level by the end of 2025, which we believe requires pick up in M&A activity in 2025.

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