Relais: Blurred visibility into 2022 - Nordea

Relais reported Q1 results that were well below Refinitiv consensus. Weather conditions, sick leave and customers' cautiousness owing to rising fuel and energy prices led to high-single-digit organic sales contraction. Although we believe market demand has reached more normal levels, despite price increases, we expect only flat market growth for the remainder of the year. For Relais, we model -1% organic growth for 2022 with slightly positive organic growth after Q1. Supply constraints remain in the market and the company has 10-15% higher-than-normal inventory as a precautionary measure. Given more favourable acquisition multiples, we believe M&A activity will pick up in H2. We derive a multiples- and DCF-based fair value range of EUR 19.9-24.3 (22.1-27.0) per Relais share. Marketing material commissioned by Relais Group Oyj.

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