Raute: Steep EBIT climb remains imminent - Evli Research

Demand is improving somewhat faster than we expected

The EUR 35.5m in Q2 revenue was close to our EUR 36.0m estimate and had a favorable tilt towards services (EUR 16.3m vs our EUR 12.0m estimate), but EBIT nonetheless remained EUR -1.0m (vs our EUR 1.6m estimate). Employee costs grew by EUR 2.8m y/y and EUR 1.0m q/q, while other operating expenses grew by EUR 1.8m y/y and EUR 0.9m q/q (due to e.g. a proprietary marketing event). The EUR 65m order intake surpassed our estimate by EUR 10m. The higher-than-expected order intake stemmed, in geographic terms, across the board and so there were no major individual surprises. Both project deliveries and technology services orders topped our estimates. Modernizations drove services orders again to a high EUR 18m figure. Demand is overall improving a bit faster than we expected, order book is already a lofty EUR 129m and we expect it to swell further during the remainder of this year. The book is also now less dependent on large projects than it used to be just a while ago.

Traditional important markets now drive results

Raute’s guidance remains unchanged. Employee costs should stabilize going forward and we also believe other expenses have now peaked. The big order book will thus begin to drive higher profitability. Raute sees potential supply chain challenges in H2, but in our view components and logistics issues are not a major long-term topic in the context of Raute considering the company’s strong value chain position. We make only small estimate revisions. We see Raute reaching EUR 163m in FY ‘22 revenue with a 6.5% EBIT margin, whereas we previously estimated a 7% margin, and further potential from there on.

Valuation is not stretched given the long-term potential

We continue to expect steep earnings climb for FY ’22. We make a small moderation in our profitability estimates, on which Raute now trades some 8x EV/EBITDA and 10x EV/EBIT; we see the FY ‘23 multiples contracting to about 7x and 9x. In our view these are attractive levels considering Raute’s leading position in advanced markets as well as long-term emerging markets opportunities. We retain our EUR 26.5 TP and BUY rating.

https://pankki.evli.com/hubfs/ERP/Raportit/Raute/Raute%20210726%20Company%20update.pdf