Qlosr: Setting up for earnings and cash flow in H2 - ABG

We cut '23e-'25e EBITDA by 5-1%
Expect some additional implementation costs in Q2
'23e-'24e EV/EBITA 8-5x


What to expect in Q2'23e

We expect Q2 revenue SEK 156m and EBITDA of SEK 10m, respectively. These estimates imply cuts of ~2% and ~23%, respectively (albeit from low absolute numbers). The EBITDA cut is related to a more conservative assumption regarding project implementation costs and a reallocation/timing aspect of costs during '23e. As the company guided in Q1, it will incur additional costs during Q2 in order to deliver on its projects. Therefore, we would like to caution against extrapolating data from a single quarter, as Qlosr's business model and application of accounting rules mean that earnings are volatile for individual quarters. Therefore, we argue that it is reasonable to observe the company's earnings in the context of e.g. the last and/or next 12 months rather than individual quarters. One should anticipate Qlosr to incur costs prior to generating revenue and cash flow, as the company's contracts will imply such an accounting treatment. That said, if the company incurs costs over e.g. one or two quarters, one would expect a stream of revenues to be incurred as the company fulfils its contractual obligation.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/qlosr/Equity-research/2023/8/qlosr---setting-up-for-earnings-and-cash-flow-in-h2/