Probi: Weak Q3, but hope for 2023 - ABG

Q3 result in line with pre-announced numbers


US weaker in Q3; expect resumed group growth in 2023


Share trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 14x


Poor quarter in the Americas drives weak Q3

Probi delivered results in line with the pre-announced numbers on 10 October, with sales of SEK 145m, corresponding to a 9% decrease y-o-y (-22% organically), and an EBITDA margin of 25% (vs. 27% in Q3’21). Q3 was weaker than our estimates ahead of the pre-announced numbers, where we expected sales of SEK 173m and an EBITDA margin of 30%. The issues stemmed mostly from the Americas region, which declined 28% organically, a break from the stabilisation seen in Q2. Probi cited lower net sales in the LiveBac segment as the main cause, but also raw material shortages disrupting customer deliveries. In EMEA, revenues declined by 3%, with the Perrigo launch not yet living up to expectations. During the quarter, two new customer agreements were signed for launches in the next months, suggesting positive signs for the region. In APAC, market growth continues to outpace the group total, with 16% higher revenues (5% organically).

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