Probi: Starting the year better than expected - ABG

Postponed sales from Q4'22 boost Q1 sales
Q1 was the strongest ever quarter in APAC, 55% growth
Share trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 13x


Positive start to the year due to FX and one-offs

Probi began the year with positive organic growth of 2% (vs. ABGSCe at -9%). The growth was boosted by favourable exchange rates and certain one-time events in the US. The EBITDA margin came in at 27.5%, fairly in line with our expectations at 28.7%. In the Americas, sales came in at SEK 131m (vs. 111m in Q1'22), helped by SEK 18m from postponed orders from Q4'22. In the EMEA region, sales were SEK 20m, 33% below Q1'22 at SEK 30m due to the sell-out of stock by the former distributor in Sweden. There, Probi expects sales to pick up at the end of Q2, with the market back to normal from Q3. In APAC, Probi delivered an all-time-high quarter, with sales at SEK 21m, 55% above Q1'22 (and 24% above our expectations), mostly due to sales in China. Although the numbers are encouraging, they partly reflect orders that came earlier this year, so the company expects lower sales volumes in Q2 (H1'23 sales in line with H1'22). APAC growth is expected to be back in H2'23.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/probi/Equity-research/2023/4/probi---starting-the-year-better-than-expected/