Probi: Going through difficult times - ABG

• Weak orders in Americas and EMEA...
• ... plus high COGS/SG&A costs hurt profitability
• Share trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 28x-12x for '23-'25

Low volumes plus higher COGS & SG&A hit Q2
Probi's total sales were SEK 143.7m (ABGSCe at 154.7m), an organic decline of 21% vs. Q2'22 (ABGSCe -15%). The main hit came from the Americas and EMEA, delivering sales of SEK 104.8m and 22.4m, respectively (vs. SEK 122.9m and 35.6m in Q2'22), mainly driven by weaker demand. EBITDA margin was 9% (ABGSCe 28%). This was justified by lower order volumes, but also by higher COGS (SEK 6m from manufacturing issues and new implementations) and SG&A (SEK 5m from restructuring costs and establishment in Sweden), totalling SEK 11m (~5m non-recurrent, we believe). When adjusted, the EBITDA margin was 17%. In Sweden, Probi saw lower sales due to the distribution take-over, but expects to go back to normal levels from Q3. Probi is also entering into Norway with first contracts signed with pharmacies. In APAC, Probi delivered high sales at SEK 16.5m (+3.1% vs. Q2'22), mostly driven by Australia and China.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/contentassets/e60beb91b22f4458ab292ada635931d3/pdf/going-through-difficult-times.pdf