Physitrack: Growth continues, but slight margin pressure - ABG

Q4e to show strong growth but slightly weaker margin
We trim '23e-'24e adj. EBITDA by 10-4%, mainly on higher opex
Share is down 10% YTD and trading at 9x '23e EV/EBITDA


Expect Q4 to remain on the same trend

We forecast Q4e sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 3.56m and EUR 0.87m, respectively, corresponding to sales growth of 38% (of which 20% organic) and an adj. EBITDA margin of 24.4%. Sequentially, we anticipate Virtual Wellness to continue expanding at a rapid pace as we estimate 16% q-o-q growth, driven by the stellar performance of Champion Health. For Lifecare subscription revenues we expect a slower development, flat sequentially. On adj. opex, we estimate that Physitrack has continued to invest for future growth, which results in a slight margin decline sequentially from 27.2% to 24.4%. However, we assess that the steep opex growth is on the opportunistic side (i.e. should not sustain similar q-o-q growth rates in '23e), as we expect top-line growth to drive a 3pp y-o-y margin expansion in '23e.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/physitrack/Equity-research/2023/2/physitrack---growth-continues-but-slight-margin-pressure-/