Physitrack: Continuing to develop the Wellness offering - ABG

One add-on and an important partnership in Q2 Small rise in subscription sales, while lowering care The share is trading at 6.1x-5.0x EV/sales for ’22e-23e An acquisition, a new subscription plan, and a new partnership

We have seen high activity during Q2: the acquisition of Champion Health, a new subscription plan for PT Courses, and a new partnership with Nightingale Health to expand the Wellness offering. Champion Health, a corporate wellness company based in UK, will be included in the figures from the beginning of May, contributing 2.6% to our sales estimate for the quarter. We do not foresee any major impact in the near term from the new subscription plan for PT Courses, but we should see long-term benefits from this model. The partnership with Nightingale Health expands the in-house developed product Access (enabling a remote offering of Wellness, allowing scalability). We like that Physitrack constantly develops its offering by focusing on maximising the subscription revenue stream, while at the same time diversifying its customer base and product offerings to reduce risk.

Q2 expectations and ‘22-’24 estimate changes We forecast Q2 sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 3.01m and EUR 0.90m, respectively, corresponding to organic sales growth of 33% y-o-y, and an adj. EBITDA margin of 30%. Following a change of analyst, we make some adjustments to our estimates. Our ‘22-‘24 top-line estimates are up by 1%, and the mix between the revenue streams is modified slightly. In addition, we make some opex adjustments, resulting in the ‘22e-‘23e adj. EBIT being raised by 4-10%.

New fair value range of SEK 36-62 per share Following the recent moves in our peer group, we lower our fair value range accordingly to SEK 36-62 per share from SEK 39-68. In addition, we note that the share is trading at 6.1x-5.0x EV/sales for ’22e-23e on our estimates, which is a tad above the digital health SaaS peer Carasent, a company with slightly lower expected ’21-‘23 growth and ‘23e EBITDA margin, acc ... Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

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