Petrolia Noco: Brage reserve uplift boosts production outlook - ABG

Q4 figures slightly below ABGSCe
Brage reserve uplift strengthens production outlook and valuation
We increase our fair value range to NOK 1.2-3.8 (1.2-3.2).


Q4 figures slightly below ABGSCe

Q4 EBITDAX of NOK 94m was slightly below our estimate of NOK 111m, mainly due to higher production costs of NOK 50m (ABGSCe NOK 38m). Net production in Q4'24 came in at 2,183boe/d vs. 2,200kboe/d in Q3'24. The company exited Q4'24 with a cash position of NOK 25m, down from NOK 43m at the end of Q3. We note that PNO reported a negative equity of NOK -8m in Q4, mainly due to the reversal of capitalised drilling costs related to the drilling of Løvmeis, and therefore completed a private placement of NOK 20m Q1'25 (raising the share count from 170m to 190m). We reiterate our oil market view as described in our Crude Quarterly Q4'24, i.e. a Brent assumption of USD 75 to YE'25, and USD 80 thereafter.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/petrolia-noco/Equity-research/2025/3/petrolia-noco---brage-reserve-uplift-boosts-production-outlook/