Penneo: Raising profitability estimates beyond '23e - ABG

Timing effects made Q3 look weak despite ARR in line with ABGSCe
Minor ARR revisions, but fewer hirings should raise profitability
No change to our positive long-term view despite worrying cash burn


Limited '23e estimate revisions despite Q3 miss

While Q3 ARR was in line with ABGSCe, the significant revenue and adj. EBITDA miss was driven by timing effects of transaction-based ARR (which will be recognised in Q4 instead). We thus make limited revisions to '23e and remain around the mid-point of the lowered FY'23 ARR guidance of DKK 87m-92m, taking comfort in a seasonally strong Q4 historically. The latter should also drive adj. EBITDA back within the reiterated FY'23 neg. DKK 10m-15m range (ABGSCe DKK -12.5m) despite a YTD loss of DKK 17.7m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2023/11/penneo---raising-profitability-estimates-beyond-23e/