Penneo Q1: no major surprises in sight - ABG

We expect 27% y-o-y Q1 ARR growth; likely reiterating guidance
Slightly altering our view on the growth vs. profitability trade-off
'24e-'25e adj. EBIT up 5-6%, '25e ARR down 2%; FVR of 6-13


Expect Q1 with no major surprises and 27% y-o-y ARR growth

We expect Q1 ARR of DKK 74.0m (27% y-o-y growth), driven by a continued low y-o-y churn of 4.0%, uplift of 15.5%, and new ARR of 15.0%. We model Q1 revenues of DKK 18.4m and adj. EBITDA of negative DKK 6.0m, but we highlight the significant seasonality and timing effects that Penneo faces (i.e. we argue it is more relevant to look at annual figures). We raise '23e ARR by ~2% to DKK 88.8m (vs. DKK 87m-95m guidance). We expect '23e adj. EBITDA of DKK -12.2m (i.e. around the mid-point of the negative DKK 10m-15m guidance).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2023/5/penneo---q1-no-major-surprises-in-sight/