Penneo: Focus on profitability intensifies - ABG

Q1e: We expect 25% ARR growth and adj. EBITDA of DKK -1.9m
Likely to reiterate FY'24 guidance with no material change in demand
FTE reduction lifts '24e-'26e adj. EBITDA by 19-5% (on low numbers)


Q1e: We expect 25% ARR growth and DKK -1.9m adj. EBITDA

Penneo reports Q1 on 23 May. We forecast ARR of DKK 92.8m for 25% y-o-y growth, driven by low churn of 4.5%, uplift of 15.5%, and new sales of 14.0%. Noting that Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter, we model revenues of DKK 24.0m and adj. EBITDA of DKK -1.9m (vs. DKK -6.6m in Q1'23). We forecast FCF (incl. leases) of DKK -11.7m, highlighting that Q1 will not see the same positive working capital effect as in Q1'23 (due to invoicing dynamics) while DKK 2.4m will be paid in postponed employee taxes. Combining this with no inflow from warrants takes the Q1e cash position down to DKK 30.3m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/4/penneo---focus-on-profitability-intensifies/