Penneo: Better profitability at the cost of slower growth - ABG

FY'24 ARR guidance lowered to DKK 101m-106m on KYC delays...
...but adj. EBITDA upped to DKK 10m-15m on slower FTE growth
Expect cons '24e EBITDA up 10-20%, more limited revisions in '25e


FY'24 EBITDA guidance raised despite lowered top-line

This evening, Penneo downgraded its FY'24 ARR guidance to DKK 101m-106m from previously DKK 105m-112m (vs. unrevised ABGSCe at DKK 106m), corresponding to 13-19% organic ARR growth. This is driven by uncertainty regarding the timing of several large KYC deals. We also suspect that a potentially slower-than-anticipated roll-out of KYC in Belgium explains a portion of the downgrade. On the flipside - and despite lower top-line expectations - Penneo raised its adj. EBITDA guidance to DKK 10m-15m from previously DKK 5m-10m (vs. unrevised ABGSCe at DKK 11m). As flagged in our Q3 preview, we had anticipated an upgrade of EBITDA, albeit November is earlier than we had expected. We gather that slower headcount growth is the key reason (which is also supported by our LinkedIn tracker).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/penneo/Equity-research/2024/11/penneo---better-profitability-at-the-cost-of-slower-growth/