OssDsign: Signal of Catalyst accelerating in Q2 - ABG

Sales up 203% y-o-y, and 6% better than ABGSCe
1,000 patients treated signals 25% Catalyst q-o-q growth in Q2
We raise sales by 3-2% for '23e-'24e


Catalyst keeps beating high expectations

OssDsign performed well and managed to grow sales by 203% y-o-y and beat ABGSCe by 6%, mostly as Cranial PSI (CMF) sales were 9% better than we expected. The US grew by 399%, and this strength was largely driven by Catalyst (bone graft), which had sales of SEK 8.8m in the quarter (+1% vs. ABGSCe). Interestingly, OssDsign press released on 9 May that it had treated 1,000 patients with Catalyst, up from 500 on 9 January. Based on the calculated ASP up until 9 January (~USD 3,000) and reported life-time sales of SEK 26m in Q1, Catalyst sales should have been nearly SEK 8m during April and the first week of May. However, the ASP could have come down with procedure mix and more use of 1cc vs. 10cc. Even so, our estimated early Q2 sales implies a run rate above SEK 11m in Catalyst sales for Q2. We expect it to grow 25% q-o-q based on that. The adj. EBIT was ~7% better y-o-y, but we believe increased R&D investment clouded the picture, and that adjusted for that, adj. EBIT could have been ~30% better y-o-y.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ossdsign/Equity-research/2023/5/ossdsign---signal-of-catalyst-accelerating-in-q2-/