OrderYOYO: Solid momentum keeps the YOYO spinning - ABG

Solid Q3 favours a fifth guidance upgrade later this year
M&A and strong '25 guidance trigger positive revisions
'25e-'26e ARR up 6-7%, EBITDA up 18-21%: FVR up to 7-15


Solid Q3 favours a fifth guidance upgrade later this year

Although our Q3 expectations on GMV (growing 14% y-o-y) and ARR (+19% y-o-y) were 13% and 4% too high, respectively, headline P&L items were in line. Revenues grew 20% y-o-y, the adj. EBITDA margin expanded by 7pp to 19%, and cash EBITDA improved by DKK 6m y-o-y to DKK 7.6m. We make small '24e revisions (with the softer Q3 figure compensated for by M&A) and expect a fifth guidance upgrade later this year. To illustrate, the high end of guidance implies Q4 revenues of DKK 79m (vs. DKK 78m in Q3), despite noting that the q-o-q delta has been materially larger historically (although M&A blurs the picture somewhat). This should ripple through to an upgrade of the adj. EBITDA and cash EBITDA guidance as well.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/orderyoyo/Equity-research/2024/10/orderyoyo---solid-momentum-keeps-the-yoyo-spinning/