North Media: Limited Q3 impact from flat paper prices - ABG

Q3e: revenues down ~4% y-o-y, ~12% EBIT margin
Paper prices flat since June, but limited Q3 impact
Could delay demand recovery; 2% cut to '24e-'25e EBIT


Q3e: ~4% y-o-y revenue decline, ~12% EBIT margin

North Media will report its Q3 on 1 November. Note that Q3 is typically a seasonally weak quarter in terms of volumes and margins. We forecast Q3 revenues of DKK 219m or a ~4% y-o-y decline (note easy comps from Q3'22), driven by our forecast of a ~6% y-o-y decline in the Last Mile segment (84% of '22 group revenues). Our Q3 EBIT estimate of DKK 26m corresponds to a ~12% EBIT margin. An estimated portfolio loss of DKK 18m in Q3 drives our diluted EPS estimate down to DKK 0.32 (adj. EPS of 1.06).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/north-media/Equity-research/2023/10/north-media---limited-q3-impact-from-flat-paper-prices/