Nolato: The tide is starting to turn - ABG

Q1 report due on Wednesday, 3 May
We expect the earnings trend to turn positive in Q1e
16-12x '23e-'24e EV/EBITA, fair value SEK 50-80/sh (45-85)


5Q negative earnings trend should turn positive in Q1e

Following five quarters of sequentially declining EBITA, we expect the negative trend to turn around in Q1 (although earnings will still be notably down y-o-y). More stable input costs (mainly oil-based products and electricity) should provide some margin support, and we expect sequential improvements in both Medical and Industrial. However, given that vaporiser heating product (VHP) volumes remain very low (as per company guidance), the Integrated segment will likely see similar earnings to Q4. All in all, we expect net sales of SEK 2,425m, down 16% y-o-y (-22.3% organic, +6.5% FX) and EBITA of SEK 194m (-27% y-o-y, +19% q-o-q), for a margin of 8.0% (-1.3pp y-o-y, +1.1pp q-o-q).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2023/4/nolato---the-tide-is-starting-to-turn/