Nolato: Q3 a step back, improvement expected in Q4 - ABG

A poor quarter, but Q4e should be better
Adj. EBITA down 4-5% for '23e-'25e
14x '24e EV/EBITA, 19% '23e-'25e adj. EBITA CAGR


A poor quarter for Medical, q-o-q improvement in Q4e

Nolato's Q3 adj. EBITA was 4% below ABGSCe and 3% below FactSet consensus, with the miss stemming from Medical, which saw poor organic growth (+1% vs. ABGSCe +8%) due to temporary de-stocking of surgical equipment (expected to improve in Q4) and further weakness within in vitro diagnostics (IVD). On the positive side, Industrial exceeded our expectations, as capacity utilisation improved further. Higher than expected net financials led to a large miss on net income, but we note that this was driven by negative FX revaluations, not higher interest expenses, and thereby it is not something we have extrapolated. In sum, the report was soft, but the factors behind the weakness look to be largely isolated to Q3, in our view. The exception to this is the further decline of the IVD sub-segment in Medical, which management expects will keep struggling in the near term.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2023/10/nolato---q3-a-step-back-improvement-expected-in-q4-/