NoHo Partners: Solid Q4 results largely in line with expectations, 2024 outlook suggest 15% growth - Nordea

NoHo Partners reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 10.6m, -5% versus Vara consensus and -6% versus our estimate. Q4 net sales were up 22% y/y at EUR 107m, in line with consensus and our estimates. Operational EBITDA (operating cash flow) was EUR 13.5m in Q4 (EUR 11.5m a year ago). Finland profitability came 7% below our expectations and International 4% below. The company recorded the expected EUR 2.7m negative fair value change due to Eezy shareholding to its financing costs, while EUR 1.2m will be recorded in 2024. Adjusted EPS was EUR 0.28. Leverage (net debt/operational EBITDA ex-IFRS 16) was 3.0x and decreased due to the completion of the Eezy divestment. The strong profitability development (EBIT +25% y/y) was mainly thanks to the Holy Cow! business, where integration is progressing well with KPIs developing above NoHo’s expectations. In CEO comments, the company notes that the weak outlook of the Finnish economy and consumer purchasing power creates uncertainty especially during H1, but a positive development of the restaurant market continues. A new guidance for 2024 was introduced; NoHo expects around EUR 430m sales and around 9.5% EBIT margin from restaurant business, implying a 15% sales growth and slight pressure on EBIT. Pre-Q4 Vara consensus has expected EUR 438m sales and an 9.7% EBIT margin in 2024. We expect consensus to slightly trim the top-line and EBIT estimates for 2024, while we expect 2025 estimates to remain largely intact.

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