Netcompany: Difficult to reconcile guidance and performance - Nordea

The strong finish to 2022 was clearly overshadowed by a disappointing 2023 EBITDA margin guidance, even when we adjust for a likely under-promise, over-deliver philosophy. We do not buy into the assumptions behind the guidance, and the margin bridge seems to have "forgotten" about the "one-off" accumulated DKK 70m profit headwind in H1 2022, and that the 2023 revenue growth guidance should add at least DKK ~100m in profit. We thus expect a margin guidance upgrade later in 2023, and a solid performance in both Q1 and Q2 y/y. If management truly believes in a recession of the magnitude embedded in its 2023 guidance, we struggle to understand the 14% y/y higher FTE by the end of 2022. We have reduced 2023E-25E EBITDA by ~5-6%, and our updated combined DCF and peer group valuation is DKK 410-480 (was DKK 445-520). Marketing material commissioned by Netcompany.

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