Napatech: '25-'26 ambition implies P/E 5.5-3.9x - ABG

We lower '24e revenue by 8%, but lift '26e by 28%
'25-'26 ambition of 30-40k units implies EPS of NOK 3.4-4.7...
...corresponding to PE ratios of 5.5-3.9x


Napatech expects several major design wins in 2024

As we expected, Napatech guided for 2024 to be an "in-between year" with revenue of USD 25m-26m, a decline of 1-7% y-o-y. More importantly, the company presented a very optimistic outlook for potential new design wins this year on the new IPU products. Management thinks it could land 4-6 design wins this year, resulting in total volume of 30k-40k units on a recurring basis, starting sometime in '25/'26. The company says it currently has a pipeline of ~30 customers, but these 4-6 are the ones that are closest to being signed. ASP and gross margin are still uncertain at this stage, but assuming an ASP of USD 3,000 and 50% gross margin would, according to our calculations, give an EPS of NOK 3.4 for 30k units (P/E 5.5x) and 4.7 for 40k units (P/E 3.9x).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Napatech/Equity-research/2024/2/napatech---25-26-ambition-implies-pe-5.5-3.9x/