Nanexa: Focusing on the right things - ABG

We provide a fresh look at Nanexa's prospects
GLP-1 receptor agonists a good space to focus efforts
Updated valuation with new fair value range of SEK 3-10

A look at where we stand
Through '23, Nanexa has been focused on its latest internal project, NEX-22, for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and on the collaboration with Novo Nordisk. NEX-22 seems to be proceeding as planned, with the goal of initiating a Ph 1 study in early '24. The collaboration with Novo Nordisk also seems to be advancing well. Although we do not know the details, we believe the focus might be on other GLP-1 receptor agonists (RA) beyond liraglutide. On NEX-20, Nanexa has released promising initial data from its Ph 1 study, although the company might need to update its current formulation to include a higher drug load without compromising safety. Final results of the Ph 1 are expected in Q4. The NEX-18 programme is advancing slowly, but still with the goal to bring a new formulation to the clinic in '24.

GLP-1 RA, a sweet spot for Nanexa
Nanexa's focus on NEX-22 and the Novo Nordisk deal makes sense, in our view. The GLP-1 RA space is growing impressively fast, with the GLP-1 RA market, only accounting for T2D key drugs, estimated at USD 40bn in '28. We see the NEX-22 programme as a door opener for Nanexa's PharmaShell technology into the GLP-1 RA space, where a successful collaboration with Novo Nordisk could be highly profitable.

New fair value range of SEK 3-10 (3-9)
We update our valuation, yielding a new risk-adjusted NPV fair value range of SEK 3-10 (3-9), including a share issue of SEK 60m in '23e. Scenario 1 (SEK 3) includes an out-licensing deal for NEX-18 in '26e ('25e) and NEX-20 in '25e (not included prev.), with no technology licensing deals. Scenario 2 (SEK 6) includes NEX-18, NEX-20 and a technology licensing deal with Novo Nordisk in '24e. Scenario 3 (SEK 10) assumes a higher penetration of NEX-18 and NEX-20; NEX-22, the Novo Nordisk licensing deal, and an additional deal in '25e.

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