Midsona: Imperfect positioning - ABG

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 14-5%
Negative price/mix from inflation data continues
Trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of ~15x-7x


What to expect in Q3'23

We anticipate organic growth of -10% for Q3'23, as macroeconomic data implies a continued negative volume/mix due to consumers reducing their basket size. This should be negative for Midsona's category of organic products, which is generally somewhat more expensive than, e.g., private label products. We expect Q3 sales of SEK 901m, an adj. EBITA of SEK 21m, which implies a margin of 2.3%, and an operating cash flow of SEK 42m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2023/10/midsona---imperfect-positioning/