Midsona: Continuing the product portfolio revamp - ABG

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 13-10%
Inflation data for Q4 suggest negative-to-neutral volume/mix
Trading at '24e EV/adj. EBITA of ~9x


What to expect in Q4'23

We anticipate a y-o-y organic decline of -8% for Q4'23, as macroeconomic data imply a negative-to-neutral volume/mix due to consumers reducing their basket size alongside still-tough comps. This should once again be negative for Midsona's category of organic products, which are generally somewhat more expensive than e.g., private label products. We expect Q4 sales of SEK 965m and adj. EBITA of SEK 37m, which implies a margin of 3.8%, as well as operating cash flow of SEK -1m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/midsona/Equity-research/2024/1/midsona---continuing-the-product-portfolio-revamp/