Maha Energy: Soft Q2 production expected - ABG

Q2e production -14% q-o-q
Q2e EBITDAX -6% q-o-q, as oil prices offset partially
Discounts oil at USD 48/bbl

Based on monthly production data from the Brazilian government, we estimate that Maha’s Q2 production is -14% q-o-q, to 3,202boe/d, with May production from Tie being particularity weak (down 23% vs. Q1 average). However, as better oil prices partially offset the reduced production, we estimate a Q2’21e EBITDAX of USD 9.1m, a 6% reduction q-o-q. This leaves us below FactSet consensus at USD 12.1m for the quarter.

On our estimates (which broadly reflect Maha’s production guidance), Maha discounts an oil price of USD 48/bbl (P/NAV 1.0x, assuming a 15% WACC). This compares to a spot oil price of ~USD 71/bbl and ABGSC’s long-term oil price estimate of USD 60/bbl.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://www.introduce.se/foretag/maha-energy/Equity-research/2021/8/maha-energy---soft-q2-production-expected/