Invisio: Sales miss, but very strong order intake - ABG

Q1 sales -13% vs cons, order intake +17% vs ABGSC
The company expect supply chain challenges also in Q2
Long-term trends (military spending) in favor

Q1 results
Sales SEK 137m (-13.1% vs ABGSC 158m and -13.0% vs cons 158m), EBITDA SEK 8m (-63% vs ABGSC 21m and -61% vs cons 20m), EBIT SEK -4m (-141% vs ABGSC 9m and -148% vs cons 8m), Order intake SEK 397m (17.1% vs ABGSC 339m).

Sales miss due to delivery delays, but positive outlook
The sales declined by 4.4% in the quarter and is explained by delays due to the pandemic. The GM was 3.3pp better than we expected and the opex was only slightly higher, so the lower profitability is due to the low sales in the quarter. What stood out this quarter is the order intake that grew 189% y-o-y. If we exclude the large, announced orders of SEK 209 in the end of March, the underlying order intake grew 37% y-o-y. The strong order intake corresponds to a very strong book to bill of 2.9x, which strengthens the positive outlook for Invisio. What may be a risk is that the company expects supply chain challenges also in Q2’22, which we expect potentially can affect the sales also in the next quarter. Moreover, the company believes in a return to more normal delivery conditions during the year with a continued strong order intake.

Estimate revisions and valuation
Based on the Q1 report, we would expect consensus to likely come down 5-10% given the weak Q1 and supply chain uncertainty into Q2. Invisio’s share is +7% YTD (while OMXS PI is -20%) and trades at EV/sales of 11x for 2022e on our unrevised estimates, which is above the 5Y historical average of 8x NTM. There is a conference call tomorrow, 5 May, at 10.00 CET.
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Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/invisio/Equity-research/2022/5/invisio---sales-miss-but-very-strong-order-intake/