Invisio: Guiding for a strong Q4 and H1’2023 - ABG

Q3 seems to be the start of a stronger period
2023-24e sales +3%, adj. EBIT +1-4%
52x ‘23e EV/EBIT at 31% ‘23e growth, 14% EBIT margin


Optimistic guidance suggests strong growth

Invisio delivered its best organic growth in ten quarters in Q3, posting 26%, coupled with 76% growth in order intake and a record order book (SEK 616m, up 28% vs. Q2). Invisio guided for “strong order intake and sales in the year’s last quarter and into the beginning of 2023”. We already expected sales growth to pick up given the filled order book and recent order intake, but the guidance for a forward-looking strong order intake makes us more confident about organic sales growth remaining at +20% for some time. Looking at the geographical drivers, Europe has been the region standing out so far in 2022 (48% YTD growth), while both North America and Rest of the World have declined. Invisio continues to have a strong order intake with nine announced large orders in Europe in 2022, and it is likely benefitting from the current uncertain geopolitical situation in Europe. Given the recent SEK 40m order from the US DoD to be delivered in Q3-Q4’22e, we also expect to see improved growth in North America. We now estimate H2’22 organic growth of 36% (26% in Q3 and 45% in Q4), followed by 26% organic growth in 2023.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/invisio/Equity-research/2022/10/invisio---guiding-for-a-strong-q4-and-h12023/