Inission: Still hampered by component shortages - Nordea

Inission will release its Q4 report on 24 February. We expect a soft report with sales down 2% y/y but adjusted EBIT up 11%, while we forecast that operations in Q4 were still hampered by component shortages. To reflect these disturbances, we lower our adjusted EBIT estimate for 2022 by 5%, including recent M&A, but raise it by 5% for 2023. We conclude that Inission's balance sheet and FCF generation allows for M&A, and is capable of adding roughly 30% to its 2022E EBIT (pro forma). Inission is currently valued at a 2023E P/E of 12x and a 2023E adjusted EV/EBIT of 9x, versus 13x and 11x for peers, respectively. We update our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 31-45 (33-43). The lower end represents a 10.9% WACC (and the upper end 8.9%), and a 0.8 pp drop in the already muted EBIT margin. Marketing material commissioned by Inission.

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