Inission: Q3 as expected, gradual recovery in '25e - ABG
Sales -9% (-16% ex. M&A), EBITA 5.7% (8.8%), but vs. record comps
Q4 likely bottom, cost cuts and demand stabilisation impact from Q1
Gradual recovery in '25e, 10-7x '24e-'26e P/E, FV SEK 50-70
Q3 results
With Q3 sales 3% below but EBITA 1% above ABGSCe, Inission largely met our lowered expectations for the report. Sales were down 9% y-o-y (-16% ex. M&A), and the EBITA margin came in at 5.7% (8.8%), down 3.1pp, albeit vs. record-high comps. Cash flow was weak, with lease adj. FCF of SEK -59m, but a large portion of this was due to the SEK -46m effect from the discontinuation of invoice factoring, a process that has now been concluded. Although there may be some minor effects from this in Q4 as well, cash flow should improve significantly. The company started reporting order intake and order book in the quarter, with these amounting to SEK 464m (458m) and SEK 1,030m (1,436m), respectively. This means book-to-bill was 0.99x (slightly above 1x in September), and the order book corresponds to roughly two quarters of sales, indicating that orders and order book duration has normalised.
Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/inission/Equity-research/2024/11/inission---q3-as-expected-gradual-recovery-in-25e/
