Incap: The EMS sector is holding its breath - Nordea

Incap had already anticipated a slow start for 2025, and now the entire EMS sector is holding its breath, waiting to see how the trade war unfolds and its effects on industrial activity and order intake. We cut our estimates owing to the increased geopolitical uncertainty. Our new fair value range is EUR 11.4-13.9 (12.1-14.8) per share, based on a DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's 2025E EV/EBIT is currently 24% below the peer group median, but consensus estimates for the whole sector could be revised down. There is no clear outlook: it all depends on high-level trade discussions, when the trade war calms down, and what the new normal ends up looking like. Marketing material commissioned by Incap.

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