Incap: Darkest hours could be over - Nordea

Incap's Q4 net sales and adjusted EBIT margin beat consensus (LSEG Data & Analytics) expectations. Profitability remained decent, despite the 46% y/y drop in net sales in Q4. With the EBIT margin not a problem, the investment case is more focused on revenue growth after the remarkable dip seen in H2 2023. Incap already guides for a q/q improvement in sales, and might internally be aiming for y/y growth in 2024, even though the official guidance indicates lower revenue y/y for 2024. The company does not pay a dividend, which is in line with consensus expectations. Having trimmed our long-term estimates, we derive a new fair value range of EUR 10.8-13.2 (11.8-14.5) per share, based on a DCF analysis backed by a peer group comparison. Marketing material commissioned by Incap.

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