Humble Group: Set for accelerated growth in '25e - ABG

Minor estimate revisions
Falling freight rates positive for Humble's gross margin
'25e EV/EBITA ~9x, ~40% below peers


What to expect in Q3'24

We expect sales of SEK 1,941m for Q3'24, implying 9% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 1.4% FX headwind. We anticipate a gross margin of just ~31% given the company's history of being able to maintain ~30% despite cost inflation and elevated freight costs. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 150m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 7.7%. We anticipate some working capital tie-up in Q3, but expect a larger release in Q4.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/humble-group/Equity-research/2024/10/humble-group---set-for-accelerated-growth-in-25e/